Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
