Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
