Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The average number of per-day killings per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh government data. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide numbers may not point to improved national stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen during these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, security analysts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also problematic because it might obscure periods when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas said.